Change is Hard: The Challenges of Path Dependence

Description:
In order to slow or reverse growing problems such as poverty, energy shortages, climate change, water scarcity and environmental degradation, we—as individuals and as societies—need to make changes. We need to slow or stop what IHOPE (Integrated History and Future of People on Earth) researchers call the "Global Acceleration." But change is hard. It demands that we think creatively to imagine a world different from the one we know. It demands that we reconfigure many of the structures—both social and material—that led to the world we have today and that give it order. Because so much depends on these structures, changing them sometimes takes more effort than it took to create them originally.

Path dependence describes a situation in which initial conditions establish a trajectory, making changes or reversal increasingly difficult. Path dependence has been studied primarily in economics, political science and science and technology studies. The Change is Hard project develops a synthetic and transdisciplinary understanding of the concept; extends it into anthropology/archaeology; and uses it to examine the governance of water and land use, in Metropolitan Phoenix and the prehistoric Greater Southwest. Insights and data from these studies are used to develop mathematical models and address questions, including: (1) What factors foster or strengthen path dependence? (2) Does path dependence help us understand urban and environmental issues, and how might such research advance insights into the concept? (3) When is change necessary, and how it can be instituted?

The research for this project involves six domains, which are pursued iteratively: (I) Transdisciplinary synthesis of the relevant theoretical literature [Wetmore]; (II) Historical geography/environmental history (1890–present) of the Phoenix Metro area [Bolin]; (III) Institutional analysis (1950–present) of the development of Phoenix zoning and land/water use policies [York]; (IV) Synthesis of relevant archaeological cases [Hegmon]; (V) Mathematical modeling of dimensions that cross-cut the cases [postdoc]; and (VI) Strategies to prepare for and deal with path dependencies [Wetmore]. As part of the project, and to facilitate faculty and student participation in it, we will be holding a 3-credit-hour graduate seminar in fall 2009.

Late Lessons from Early History